When will we know the election result (reasonably surely)?

— A Straight Answer

I thought it would be a simple question Google will give a straight answer. But after reading a few articles in the top search result, I did not get one. So I want to do the research for you and here is my estimate:

By 11/3–11/4: 75%+

Reasoning: Based on the NYTimes article, if Biden wins Florida or North Carolina, he is solid. Assuming he has a 50% chance for both states, the probability of him wining at least one of them is 75%.

By 11/6: 90%+

Reasoning: I searched for 2 of the closest elections (2004, 1960). In both cases, people had a good sense of who won by the next day.

Wild card:

Don’t think there have been candidates before who suggested would not accept the election result. But still, that won’t stop the media from calling the result.

So unpopular opinion here: you still have a good chance of “knowing: the election result (reasonably well) on election night.

Reference Links:

When Will We Know The 2020 Election Results? Here Are The States To Watch.

When To Expect Election Results In Every State

Historical Presidential Election Information by State

We Have Never Had Final Results on Election Day

Needle Update: What to Expect on Election Night